With the recent announcement from the United Soccer League regarding the implementation of promotion and relegation within its league structure, many have speculated that it could be a watershed moment for American enthusiasm towards soccer. While the idea of promotion or relegation is new for the American league system, there is a significant number of Americans who support a foreign club, mainly in England, where such a structure has always existed. While a decline in attendance is commonly observed in American sports following declines in performance, it remains to be seen whether a system of promotion and relegation will spur fans’ support for their teams, or if it will force fans away to more successful teams.
This report analyzes the evolution of American Premier League fanbase from 2020 to 2024, examining trends in fan growth, correlations with league performance, and conducting detailed case studies of three notable teams. The analysis is based on fanbase estimates, weighted for 276 million Americans aged 13 or older, using data collected in the January following each listed year, and final league positions for each season (usually in May).
The study encompasses 25 teams across the Premier League and English Football League pyramid and provides insight into how American soccer fans engage with English soccer, and how team performance impacts international following. The purpose of this study is to gauge whether the threat of relegation, the dream of promotion, or prolonged stability and success, will influence support from American fans towards their clubs in the future.
Methodology
Methodology Overview
The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of promotion, relegation, and league performance on American fans who support English soccer clubs. With promotion and relegation now on the horizon, it is important for both leagues and fans to understand the implications of this new structure. To do this, SBRNet’s studies of American soccer fans were utilized. These studies focused on fans who support foreign teams and specifically asked if respondents supported a specific Premier League club. Each study used an identical survey over the course of five years, which ensured consistent data collection and reliable results. The data extracted from this survey is specifically related to Premier League support for each club. The data is adjusted for roughly 270 million people to estimate total support across the American population aged 13 or older. It was gathered in January following the listed year (e.g., data for 2020 was gathered in January 2021). “Pyramid position” reflects the team’s final position in the corresponding season (e.g., 21st in the pyramid = 1st in EFL Championship). With the timing of the surveys, it is possible to analyze how fans react to the most important aspect of the club’s season, which is the final league position. With assistance from Claude AI, a Pearson Correlation was then used to measure the effect of league position on American support, measured in thousands of fans. Because “1” reflects an English Premier League title, a negative correlation between change in league position and change in support actually suggests that an improved pyramid position results in greater American support, and that a positive correlation suggests that support wanes as pyramid position worsens. Teams are also divided by league position for group comparisons, and further detail on this is available here.
Key Findings
- Total Market Growth: American Premier League fanbase expanded by 62.3% from 2020-2024, growing from 18.6 million to 30.2 million fans
- Growth Pattern: Peak expansion occurred in 2022 (+35.0%), followed by stabilization and the first decline in 2024 (-1.0%)
- Performance Correlation: Strong negative correlation (-0.676) between league position and fanbase size, indicating American fans strongly favor successful teams
- Market Concentration: Top 6 teams dominate with average fan bases of 3.8 million vs. 245k for mid-tier teams
- Notable Performers: Newcastle United achieved extraordinary growth of 970% following ownership change, while relegated teams like Leeds United and Sheffield United suffered severe losses of American fans
Data Analysis
Overall League Trends
Insert Fig. 1
Overall 2020-2024: +11,576k fans (+62.3%)
Correlation Insights by Team Groups
The overall position-fanbase correlation of -0.676 masks significant variation across different team categories:
- Elite Tier Dynamics: Within the Big 6, there is virtually no correlation (-0.031) between position and fanbase size. Manchester United's massive fanbase (8.5M on average) despite inconsistent performance (4.4 average position) exemplifies how brand power can transcend recent results. This suggests that at the elite level, historical success, marketing investment, and global brand recognition matter more than current performance.
- Mid-Tier Paradox: Interestingly, teams in the 11-14th position range show a moderately positive correlation (+0.383), meaning worse-performing teams in this tier tend to lose fans as performance degrades, but there are outliers. Established clubs with historic Premier League status (like Everton, who have played continuously in the top-flight since 1954) retain fans despite poor performance, while newly promoted teams in similar positions have struggle to gain and keep support.
- Bottom Tier Reality: Teams averaging 15th position or lower show the strongest correlation (+0.607), suggesting American fans quickly abandon teams that consistently struggle or face relegation. The correlation is quite strong, but within this struggling group, the teams closest to mid-table (around 15th-17th) tend to retain more fans than those deeper in relegation territory. Successful relegation battles may rally some American supporters, despite overall poor-performance.
- Growth Performance Patterns:
- High-growth teams show strong negative correlation (-0.650), confirming that success drives fanbase expansion
- Teams with negative growth show very strong positive correlation (+0.780), indicating that worse performance accelerates fan losses
- Manchester United's removal from the dataset strengthens the overall correlation to -0.798, highlighting how single outliers can significantly impact correlation analysis